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NY notwithstanding, Trump won't win the essential 1,237, says analyst

Survey of likelihoods in the remaining states shows his pre-convention victory improbable


There’s been a lot of hand wringing after New York’s primary on April 19th. There was more than just a little cheering from the Manhattan based mainstream media (“We showed that Cruz guy what New York values really are!”).

Yes, Donald Trump did win 89 delegates. With 400,000 votes.

And no one should care.

The reaction to today’s results should be just the same. When the results roll in quickly tonight, guess what, Donald Trump will win in the neighborhood of 100 delegates (for those scratching their heads over that number, see “Pennsylvania” and “direct delegate elections.”).

That will put him in the neighborhood of 945 to 955 delegates in the pursuit of 1,237.

Being a competitive runner back in the day, this is akin to leading for 700m of an 800m race and realizing that you might have used all that’s in the tank to get to that point and then the next 100 meters were going to be a death march. Unfortunately, I had a few of those experiences.

The month of May is going to be a death march for Donald Trump.

This article continues at [] Why Today’s Romp by Trump Doesn’t Matter

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