With eight months left, polling shows Canada's Conservatives with clear lead over Liberals

With eight months left, polling shows Canada’s Conservatives with clear lead over Liberals

The State
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[CampaignResearch.ca] The latest National Campaign Research Poll conducted among 1,590 Canadians revealed that the Conservatives (CPC) held a clear lead (37%) over the Liberals (LPC, 32%), while the New Democratic Party of Canada’s (NDP) fortunes continue their decline with the party remaining a distant third (14%). Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada doesn’t appear to be having a noticeable impact on the CPC.

VIDEO: Heritage Minute parody video by the Conservative Party of Canada highlighting some of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s more egregious political bunglings. [Feb 4, 2019]


The CPC increased their vote share at the expense of the LPC and NDP in most of Canada. In seat rich Ontario the CPC (40%) now hold a strong lead of 7% over the Liberals (33%), similarly the CPC greatly increased their vote share in their traditional strongholds of the Prairies and especially Alberta, where they now hold two thirds of the decided vote (65%).

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois made a significant gain of +4% since December 2018. The CPC made a gain of +3% since December 2018 (24%) but still trail the LPC (36%). BC also saw some changes with the CPC (-2%) and the LPC (-6%) losing vote share since December 2018. While both parties declined, the broader decline of the LPC, meant that the two parties were tied at 28% each, with this being the only province where the NDP remains competitive (23%).

The SNC Lavalin issue (which broke as this study was being fielded), seems to have had a negative impact on the Prime Minister’s net approval rating with it doubling to -18% from -9% in December 2018.  Most Canadians (53%) now disapprove of the job Justin Trudeau was doing as Prime Minister.  NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s net approval rating also experienced a sharp decline to -23% further down from -15% in December 2018, with nearly half of Canadian’s expressing no opinion of him (45%) and a mere 16% expressing approval. Unlike his party brand, Andrew Scheer did not immediately benefit from his rival’s unpopularity and his net approval rating also fell to -4% from -1% in December 2018. In terms of who the public considered to be the best Prime Minister, Andrew Scheer (25%) is now neck in neck with Justin Trudeau (28%) with a mere 3% difference compared to a 10% difference in December2018. 

This article continues at [CampaignResearch.ca] Conservative Party has a clear lead over the Liberal Party just 8 months out from the election

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